The talent war has continued to receive attention. With the launch of talent strategies in strong second-tier cities, local governments have achieved good results in expanding the size of urban population. The population of Xi'an and Zhengzhou has exceeded 10 million. So what is the pattern of population competition in each city?
Chongqing's household registration population is growing negatively; Nanjing, Tianjin, Chengdu is slowing down
Driven by the radical population growth policy, the registered population of strong second-tier cities has generally increased significantly since 2017. For example, in Chengdu and Xi'an, the population growth in 2017 has reached more than 200,000. However, further analysis of the population growth structure shows that there are still hidden problems in some urban population growth, such as the natural negative growth of Chongqing's registered population, while the population growth of cities such as Nanjing and Chengdu is mainly due to the rapid growth of the floating population. There is no substantial increase resulted from its attractiveness. The mechanical growth of the household registration population in Chengdu and Nanjing is largely at the expense of urban migrants.
Compared with the growth of permanent residents in strong second-tier cities in 2017, Xi'an and Hangzhou ranked in the top two, with 785,000 and 276,000 respectively. The two cities not only have the largest population growth, but also have better subdivision indicators. For example, the natural population growth rate is higher than the national average of more than one thousand points. The population absorption capacity continues to increase, and the population sources are also relatively broad. However, cities such as Nanjing, Tianjin, Chengdu, and Chongqing have more or less problems, like the natural growth rate is too low, or the population growth is insufficient. The growth of Chengdu, and Nanjing's household registration population, and reduce of net inflow population are simultaneously occurring, which resembles some meanings of " draining the pond to get all the fish ".
The Krure Research Center believes that in the long run, the population pattern is affected by the industrial economy, housing price level, location transportation, population structure, population quality and other combined influnce. Through comprehensive evaluation of these impact factors, we can find that Hangzhou, Xi'an and Wuhan have the greatest population growth potential; Nanjing and Zhengzhou, which have strong traffic accessibility, have the second highest per capita adsorption capacity; while Chongqing, Chengdu and Tianjin are affected by economic development and traffic accessibility, lack of centrality, thus the population growth faces certain challenges.
Xi'an and Wuhan will Potentially Become Super Big Cities
Huashang Daily reporter noted that in terms of economic priority, Xi'an ranks only second to Wuhan in these eight cities, with its GDP accounts for about 34.2% of the province's total. The economic primacy refers to the ratio of the total economic volume of the city to the total economic output of the province (city group), reflecting the economic absorption capacity of the surrounding population.
According to Hu Wenxiu, a professor at Xi'an University of Technology, Wuhan's population adsorption capacity and economic radiation are swaying ahead of other cities in Hubei. Xi'an's role in the Guanzhong urban agglomeration is irreplaceable in Shaanxi. "They are vying to go to Xi'an." In addition, Xi'an also has the inherent advantages of high-quality university resources.
Compared to Hangzhou, Nanjing, Tianjin, Zhengzhou and Wuhan, Xi'an, Chengdu and Chongqing are weaker in traffic accessibility to other fourth tier cities inside province. “The city needs to enhance its attractiveness. It is only a channel to implement the residency policy. The key is to rely on its own basic reserves in terms of industrial development and employment opportunities.” Lu Shanbing, a professor at Northwestern University’s School of Economics and Management, said that urban vitality is the decisive factor in attracting population mobility.
According to the Urban Development and Environmental Research Center of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, the number of megacities with a population of more than 10 million in urban areas will reach 10 or more. Some analysts believe that the threshold for domestic megacities is that the urban population is over 10 million. Although the permanent population of many second-tier cities such as Xi'an and Wuhan has exceeded 10 million, the urban population is still insufficient. And these strong second-tier cities with rapid population growth will be the “potential stocks” of megacities in the future.
